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Consumer confidence is showing signs that the US sub-prime crisis  and consequent credit crunch is still shaking national confidence levels not only in the American markets following the collapse of majorfinancial instititutions and bail outs by the Fed Reserve but in Europe and Britain with Consumer Confidence sinking to record lows and the Fed having to bail out an ever increasing number of finncial institutions, including thousands of small regional banks. The better than 80% track record between confidence  confidence measures by the Conference Board and Michigan University Consumer Sentiment Index  and subsequent spending patterns over two decades lends credence to the view that Asia is still booming, European business and consumer confidence is still the best forward trend predictor now that the ever upwards movement of  oil prices and the price of gold seems to have levelling off.  Watch for the risk of a collapse of major banks as more nations move into recessionary conditions.

Federal Reserve's Bernank and Treasury Secretary Paulson and former Guru Greenspan are belatedly accepting responsibility for  the need to take shares in the bigger institutions shoreing up the collapsing US econonomy with huge bailout funds  Speculators are again  pushing  for the right to increase marrket volatility to record levels to keep up their brokerage fees and profit from the continuing credit crunch  (see USA column below)  with considerable variation between its State's levels of consumer conidence and business confidence. Some states are already resuming their usual levels of hubris and optimism that they will be OK despite their exposure to the collapse of the major brokerage houses and the loss of confidence in all but a handful of major banks proppped up with taxpayer funds.Around the globe cental banks are being forced to walk into financial institutions  and respond to an extended credit crunch caused by banks failure to trust each other to tell the truth and provide any measure of transparency with respect to their toxic holdings

Australia is still  facing an inflation breakout from the RBA guidelines , leading to it going in the opposite direction with Glenn Stevens having to banlace further rate cuts after an historic 100 point cut last time and a possible further 50 points in November...   So its USA down, Australia steady  and watch  even the BRIC economies struggle to survive the financial tsunami. Expect a world wide slow down in consumer spending and early signs of stagflation around the globe, despite rising commodity prices and watch oil fluctuate around $75  a barrel  by the end of the year while  gold moves  steadily  around US$800 as consumers respond to the flood of bailout funds from the five major central banks,  lose confidence in the commodity boom as an investment hedge and hedge funds that survive the credit freese start to regain an appetite for risk..

After months of speculation and uncertainty around the global economy, it appears the penny has finally dropped for the world’s consumers. Consumer confidence worldwide has fallen to its lowest level in several years, according to the Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Index, the definitive gauge of consumer sentiment around economic and social concerns.    The investment community will be watching profits and divident opportunities  not cash flow  http://www2.acnielsen.com/reports/index_consumer.shtml

Consumer Confidence -  our global summary

Argentina

Argentina’s benchmark inflation-linked bonds have tumbled 24 percent this year, making the country’s debt market the worst performer in the world, according to data compiled by JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Bloomberg.  Polls show that Fernandez is the front-runner to replace Kirchner in next week’s elections. She rebuts claims by government statisticians that Kirchner’s administration forced them to tamper with consumer price data to hide the extent of inflation. Merrill Lynch & Co., the world’s biggest brokerage, estimates prices may be rising at a 17 percent annual pace, double the official rate.

“Argentine inflation-linked debt is the single worst long- term asset in all of emerging-markets,'’ said Paul McNamara, who manages more than $1 billion of fixed-income at London-based Augustus Asset Managers. He sold his holdings of the securities when government workers said in February that they were told to eliminate prices from the index.  About 40 percent of the nation’s $136 billion debt is inflation-based securities, whose principal rises and falls with the consumer price index. Bondholders have lost out on $250 million in interest payments this year, Merrill Lynch estimates. By reducing the official rate, the government will save $5 billion in principal payments at maturity, data from the New York-based firm show.

http://commonsensewonder.com/?p=2663
 

Australia

Consumer Confidence in Australia Rating is down 3.4 points in a week according to the Rpy Morgan Research Consumer  Confidence report at  87.3 (). Interviewing was conducted October 25/26, 2008, following a week in which discussion over the Rudd Government's decision to guarantee the nation's bank deposits - but not mortgage linked investments -  was in the front of the news.

For the first time since the early 1990s recession, a majority of Australians (54%, up 6% in a week) expect "bad times" financially for the country as a whole over the next 12 months compared to only 14% (down 1%) who expect "good times" financially over the next 12 monthsAustralian families are also far more negative about their family's financial situation compared with a year ago with 42% (up 5%) saying they're worse financially than a year ago compared to only 25% (down 2%) who say they're better off financially.
Retailers are in for tough times with only 28% (down 2%) of Australians saying now is a "good time to buy" major household items compared to 40% (down 5%) that say now is a "bad time to buy."

Gary Morgan says:"It is crucial that the weekly 'Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating' is published by the media. Every Australian should know how Australians' are feeling about the economy, the future and their own financial situation. There are those in Government who would prefer this information be withheld. However, in our view, this would be akin to 'insider trading' at a national level.  "The increase in financial turmoil last week saw the weekly Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating drop 3.4 points 87.3. The latest result follows last week's small rise, a short term reprieve after the Rudd Government guaranteed deposits in the "Big 4 Banks" and increased pensions and other welfare levels from December.

www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2008/809/

Baltic

Lending behavior had changed within the last four to five months in Latvia and Estonia, and cited a "clear decline" in new loans, compared with peak monthly levels and the average levels of the last three to four years.  The recent decline in consumer confidence in the Baltics was not affecting the peoples confidence in the banks, since the Baltic market is small compared with the size of the banking groups involved. (Estonian consumer confidence fell during August to its lowest level in almost two years because of worsening expectations about household and state finances).

Canadian consumer confidence this month fell to levels not seen since 1982, when the country was in recession, the Conference Board of Canada reported Friday.Based on a poll of 2,000 people between Oct. 2 and 8, the conference board said its index of consumer sentiment fell 11.9 points to a reading of 73.9. That was the weakest point since the third quarter of 1982.

“The global credit crunch and major stock market declines clearly had an effect on consumer confidence in October,” said Pedro Antunes, director of the conference board’s national and provincial forecast.“In addition, consumers felt that they would be worse off in six months, indicating concerns that the financial crisis would not be resolved quickly,” Antunes said.

http://businessnewss.wordpress.com/2008/10/18/canadian-consumer-confidence-retreats-to-1982-level/

China

China Consumer Confidence Index (CCCI) was updated today, with the survey results showing that consumer confidence fell by another one point to 95.8 in February after a stabilization in January, affected by the sharp stock market falls starting mid-to-late January and the snow storm disasters in the southern part of China right before the Chinese New Year.

Consumer sentiment on current conditions fell 1 point in February, led by a fall in the purchase intention for durable goods probably caused by the fall in the stock market. Current personal finances, on the contrary, improved for the second consecutive month. Consumer expectations fell further from their peak in July, dropping 0.9 point in February. Among the three components of the overall expectations index, both the index measuring personal finances in one year and the index measuring business outlook in one year fell, while the index measuring business outlook in five years rose slightly.

Under the support of the Xinhua Finance family, Xinhua Finance eziData China Consumer Confidence Index is produced monthly by eziData, a local provider of China consumer data, and in association with Dr. Richard Curtin. Dr. Curtin is Research Professor and Director of the Consumer Sentiment Surveys at the University of Michigan's Institute of Social Research. The survey this month was conducted through 1,541 telephone interviews from February 1 to 4, and 15 to 17, 2008 (avoiding the Chinese New Year holidays). April 2007 survey results are set as the benchmark value of 100. More on the survey methodology can be found in the accompanying section.

The sharp stock market falls after mid January had caused significant losses to the investment returns on the part of the consumers, with a sharp month-on-month drop in cumulative 12-month investment returns only next to the drop seen in November 2007. However, consumer's expectations on the future of the stock market did not collapse in February. Instead, it rebounded slightly after a plunge posted the month before, suggesting sufficient confidence among average investors in the current stock index for a rebound.

As the government control on the real estate market deepened, overall consumer sentiment on house buying in the year ahead plunged in February, indicating a further decline on the part of the buyers.

http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/industries/media/article/china-consum...

Czechoslovakia 

Czech consumer confidence indicator rose to 102.5 in February from 92.9 in January, the statistical office said Wednesday. A year ago, the index stood at 106.
Meanwhile, the business confidence indicator decreased to 105.4 from 106.3 in January and 106.8 in the year ago period. The composite indicator recorded 104.9, up from 104 in January.

http://www.rttnews.com/forex/economicnews.asp?date=02/27/2008&item=11

Confidence in Czech economy grew in January after eight months and the aggregate indicator increased by 1.6 points month-on-month, the Czech Statistical Office (CSU) said Monday. Consumer confidence indicator was up 4.7 percent, while business confidence increased by just 0.7 point compared with December. The January poll showed consumers expected the overall economic and financial situation to improve moderately in the next 12 months. Expectations of unemployment also improved and returned to long-term favourable values. The percentage of respondents planning to save money, however, dropped, the CSU said.

The big deterioration in the sentiment in the previous months was caused mainly by concerns about the reform measures combined with a strong growth in food prices at the end of the year. Year-on-year, overall confidence indicator dropped 3.4 points in January. Business confidence indicator fell by 1.4 points on the year, while consumer confidence was 11.8 points lower.Overall, the confidence indicator in industry decreased slightly (by 0.3 point), mth/mth, showing the same value as in January 2007, the CSU said.

In construction, the assessment of current economic situation decreased slightly mth/mth in January. Expectations of the economic situation development for the period of the next three months are lower than in December, for next six months they are slightly higher.  On the other hand, the assessment of current total demand increased. For the period of the next three months respondents expect a favourable development of construction works and employment to continue.

 http://www.praguemonitor.com/en/261/czech_business/17816/

 Denmark

 Denmark's consumer confidence index fell to minus 9.7 in July from minus 6.6 in June, Denmark's national statistics office said on Thursday.In a Reuters poll, analysts had forecast a reading of minus 7.5.For further details in Danish, Reuters 3000 Xtra users can click on http://www.dst.dk

http://www.forbes.com/afxnewslimited/feeds/afx/2008/07/24/afx5248420.htm...

England'

The Bank of England issued a gloomy outlook for the UK’s financial markets, noting that the credit, equity, and commercial property markets remain “vulnerable to further adjustments.” The BOE pointed the finger at a sharp slowdown in the US economy and rising credit defaults that “could trigger a further round of asset price falls.” While this analysis does not necessarily suggest that the central bank will be aiming to cut rates in the near-term, it does effectively eliminate much of the probabilities of a rate hike. Indeed, BOE Governor Mervyn King is a staunch hawk and extremely hesitant to enact policies that create the potential for moral hazard to come into play – though one could argue that the BOE’s bailout and guarantee of funds at Northern Rock just a few weeks ago was the epitome of just this. Nevertheless, until UK data starts to reflect a more pronounced economic slowdown and easing in price pressures, interest rates in the UK will likely hold at 5.75 percent until at least Q1 2008..

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/US_Dollar_At_Record_Low__1193435432242...

Europe
Consumer confidence in Europe in the 15 countries that use the euro improved in August as concerns about rising prices eased, according to a European Commission survey published Friday, the overall measure of economic sentiment in the euro zone fell to 88.8 from 89.5 in July.

That was a slightly larger drop than the fall to 89.0 that economists had forecast. It was due to worsening sentiment in the industrial and retail sectors. The headline measure of industrial confidence fell to -10 from -8 in July, a larger drop than the decline to -9 that was forecast by economists but against expectations, consumer confidence picked up to -19 from -20 in July. That was largely because consumers now expect that prices will rise over the next 12 months at a much slower pace than they have at any time in 2008.

The decline in overall economic sentiment points to slower growth in the months to come. The headline measure of confidence in the retail sector fell to -11 from -9. Among consumers, concerns about job security increased. but there were some signs of resilience, with the headline measures of confidence in the services and construction sectors rising to 3 from 1 and to -13 from -14, respectively.

http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?StoryId=b74dab2b-c5...
  

Finland

 
Finland's consumer confidence indicator declined slightly in September from August, a report by Statistics Finland said Monday. Meanwhile, results of a separate survey showed that the business confidence indicator also declined.  The consumer confidence indicator fell to 8.1 in September from 8.7 in August. Consumer confidence was weaker compared to the previous year and the long-term average.

In September, consumers' assessment about their own economic situation in the next 12 months improved tremendously to 6.3 from 3.2 in August. Their assessment about household's saving possibilities in the next 12 months increased slightly to 50.7 from 50.5 in the previous month.  Expectations regarding Finland's economic situation in the next 12 months declined slightly to minus 16.8 from minus 16. Consumers' expectations regarding unemployment in the next one year worsened to minus 8 from minus 2.9 in the previous month

http://www.rttnews.com/Content/AllEconomicNews.aspx?Node=B2&Id=724380

France

Consumer confidence in France fell to a record low in July as inflation accelerated to the fastest pace in 12 years, eroding households' purchasing power.  As prices for food and energy rise, consumers have less disposable income, damping domestic demand. A decline in household spending, which accounts for 57 percent of gross domestic product, would weaken an economy set to grow at the slowest pace since 2003 this year as a global slowdown erodes export sales.

A gauge of consumer sentiment dropped to minus 48, the lowest since the index was introduced in 1987, from minus 46 in June, the Paris-based national statistics office, Insee, said in a statement today. Economists expected a decline to minus 47, according to the median of 20 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey.

France's economy, the third largest in Europe, is expected to expand about 1.6 percent this year, according to Insee. Inflation in France accelerated to 4 percent in June, the fastest pace in more than 12 years, based on a European Union harmonized method, Insee said.  French consumer spending, which accounts for about 15 percent of retail sales, fell in June, prompting retailers to reduce annual targets for profit and sales. Business confidence fell to the lowest in more than three years in July.

http://beritabiz.blogspot.com/2008/07/french-july-consumer-confidence.ht...  
Germany
German economic prospects took two big hits on Tuesday, raising fears of recession as both business sentiment and consumer confidence were reported to be falling further in Europe's biggest economy.The monthly business climate index calculated by the Munich-based economic research institute Ifo fell to 94.8 points from 97.5 points in July, its lowest level since August 2005.  Economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires had forecast a much more modest drop to 97.1 points.  Household confidence as measured by the GfK institute fell to a five-year low meanwhile, as "subdued economic prospects and the expectation of additional price hikes continued to depress consumer sentiment."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080826/ts_afp/germanyeconomybusinessconfid...

 Greece

Greek economic sentiment improved in July as stronger business confidence in retail trade lifted the index to 109.1 points from 108.9 in June, the Foundation for Economic and Industrial Research (IOBE) said yesterday. The overall economic climate index is based on business expectations sub-indices covering industry, construction, retail trade, services and consumer confidence. The index remained above its 2000-06 moving average and slightly higher than a 106.4 reading in the same month a year earlier, IOBE said. “The slight rise in the index is due primarily to the significant rise in the retail trade index. The forecast for producer trends and orders in the near future is positive. Conversely, consumer confidence weakened slightly,” IOBE said. (Reuters)

http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/news/economy_&xml/&aspKath/economy.asp...

Hong Kong

 Feb. 19, 2008 (China Knowledge) - Hong Kong's seasonally unemployment rate in January is estimated to remain the lowest level at 3.4% in more than nine years, the same as last December, which is expected to increase consumers' confidence and spending. With the strong backing of the mainland booming economy, banks, retailers and law firms in Hong Kong are increasing hiring. "Hong Kong's labor market

http://www.chinaknowledge.com/News/news-detail.aspx?type=1&id=13423

Hungary

Hungarian consumer confidence indicator declined to minus 43.5 in August from minus 42.9 in July. During the corresponding period of the previous year, the reading was at minus 47.2.  Meanwhile, the indicator measuring the business confidence in the economy stood at minus 8.1 for the second month in a row in August. The business confidence indicator had fallen to minus 10 in June from minus 7.3 in May.

In August, the GKI-composite index stood at minus 17.3, slightly lower than the minus 17.1 recorded in the previous month. In June, the composite index had dipped to minus 19.4 from minus 19 in May. The GKI said after touching a lowest level of minus 55.4 in April, the value of the GKI consumer confidence index continued to increase until July, which was followed a very slight decline, practically stagnation, during August. According to the report, the July-August indicator represented the highest level for the past two years.

http://www.rttnews.com/Content/AllEconomicNews.aspx?Id=696568

India

Consumer confidence inI India  dipped to 133 in the recent leg of the Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Index is the third consecutive one since its peak score of 137 in late 2006.  After topping the Index five times in a row, it has now moved to the second spot, behind Norway, in the November 2007 survey conducted by The Nielsen Company.   Thirty-eight per cent Indian respondents consider job prospects in the country excellent, and 57 per cent respondents consider the job prospects good. With a figure of 95 per cent, Indians are the second most optimistic as far as the job market in the next 12 months is concerned.

This is in line with consumer sentiments worldwide. According to the latest Global Consumer Confidence study, more than a quarter of global consumers expect a global recession in 2008, resulting in a dip in confidence in 21 of the 48 markets Nielsen surveyed. Twenty-seven per cent of the Indian respondents, too, fear a global recession in the next 12 months.

http://stockam.wordpress.com/2008/03/10/concerned-but-optimistic/

Indonesia

Consumer Confidence in Ind0nesia has fallen again according to Debnath Guharoy  commenting upon The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index which has dipped another seven points in the April-June quarter to 102, the lowest since the national survey began in Oct. 2004.   But a national index of 102 masks the real picture. Teetering, but still in positive territory above the neutral 100 mark, it will allow politicians and spin-doctors to continue championing an economy that is growing at over 6 per cent per annum.

The pain caused by rising prices has dropped rural Indonesia to 103, two points above their urban counterparts at 101. Living off the land slightly cushions them from the rising costs of goods and services -- unlike the city folk.  Regardless of the cost of groceries, good times continue to roll for the fortunate few who earn over Rp 5 million per month. They also are down from the exuberance of 159 a year ago, dipping 14 points in the last quarter alone to the current 135.The reason is simple. In contrast with their fellow citizens, relative to the cost of living in Indonesia, they live a privileged life. The rising cost of food and fuel has little or no impact on their lifestyle. For the millions of people at the other end of the spectrum, the impact is all too real.

http://old.thejakartapost.com/detailbusiness.asp?fileid=20080902.L04&ire...

Ireland

Consumer confidence in Ireland fell for the sixth consecutive month in July as concerns over rising costs led to caution among households.  The IIB/ESRI index of consumer sentiment, published yesterday, dropped to a new record low of 39.6 last month, down from 42.2 in June. This is the lowest reading since the index began in 1996.

NCB analyst John Sheehan said home registration figures meant that the number of new homes built in the Republic next year could be less than 30,000, slightly less than half the number completed last year.   Registrations are one of the most accurate guides to house building. Mr Sheehan explained that while buyers stay out of the market and while there is a backlog of existing stock, builders will not go ahead with new developments.   As homes are registered about nine months before completion, the system gives a clear picture of what the industry's immediate future holds.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2008/0807/1218047756330.html

Israel

Consumer Confidence in Israel  fell 3.4 points in July to 73.3 points, a four-year low, after remaining almost unchanged in June. The drop in the public's expectations for the next six months dragged the index down, and indicate that private consumption will slow during the rest of the year. Over the past year, the index indicated that a slowdown was in the offing, and it is now being seen in official figures. The drop in imports of durable goods in July is the latest report to this effect.  The public is also increasingly pessimistic about the job market, despite positive figures that showed that the unemployment rate fell to a 19-year low of 6.1%. The public apparently does not believe that the strong job numbers will last, and has internalized the repercussions of the expected slowdown.

The public's assessment of the economic situation dropped sharply in July. This pessimism, which has been growing rapidly in recent months, shows a marked change from the preceding period. The public's assessment about the economic situation in six months time was stable in July, although this does not change the general downward trend of the past year.  The public's assessment about their personal economic situation in six months time has been highly volatile in recent months, and reflect the public's fears and confusion about the future. These attitudes are the main driver of the public's future purchasing decisions.

http://www.globes.co.il/serveen/globes/DocView.asp?did=1000369160&fid=17...

Italy 

Consumer confidence in Italy increased slightly in April from March thanks to an improved perception of the economic situation and of the interviewees' personal situation, according to the research group ISAE.The consumer confidence index rose to 99.8 in April from 99.0 in March.  The reading is also below the 100.0 figure forecast by economists polled by Thomson Financial News.

http://www.forbes.com/afxnewslimited/feeds/afx/2008/04/24/afx4927346.htm...

Jamaica

Jamaican consumers maintained a favourable outlook for job and income growth, although spending plans showed mixed changes. More consumers expressed plans to buy a home than in the previous quarter - 15 per cent, up from 11 per cent - while fewer intended to purchase automobiles or spend on vacation.
After reaching as high as 163 leading up to the general elections in September, the consumer confidence fell modestly to 147.7 during the last quarter of 2007, remaining at record levels despite the pullback in optimism related to election euphoria. The latest reading was the highest on record next to the confidence level during the third quarter of 2007. "When asked to explain their (positive) views, two-thirds of those that anticipated an improved economy attributed their optimism to a change in government."

Interestingly, consumers did not hold as pessimistic a view of the current economic climate, creating an anamoly in the difference between consumer and business optimism. The percentage of firms that expressed optimism about future economic growth dropped from 45 per cent in the third quarter of 2007 to 28 per cent during the quarter under review, which, apart from uncertainty surrounding "shifts in government spending and taxing priorities", reflected the sluggishness of the new administration in its implementation of policy.

http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/magazines/Business/html/20080108T170000-0...  

Japan

Consumer confidence  in Japan fell to a fresh record low in July due to mounting worries about a weakening economy, employment and wage conditions, and rising consumer prices, according to government data released on Tuesday.   The consumer confidence index slid to 31.4 in July, hitting its lowest level since the Cabinet Office started to compile the data in comparative form in June 1982, and down from 32.6 in June. The sub-index for general economic well-being fell to 329.3 in July, the lowest level on record, and was down from the previous low of 30.3 in June The income growth sub-index dipped to 36.3 in July, a level not seen since March 2003 when the index was at 35.8, and was down from 36.5 in June this year.

Respondents were asked if there was an improvement in these areas over the previous three months. A reading above 50 means the number of respondents reporting an improvement outnumbered those seeing a deterioration, while a reading below 50 means the majority of respondents believe conditions had worsened.The employment conditions sub-index fell to 30.7, the lowest level since June 2003 when the index was at 29.5, and was down from 32.8 in June.   The sub-index for willingness to buy durable goods fell to 29.2, a record low and down from 30.9 in June  The Cabinet Office said a record 89.3 percent of those surveyed expected prices to rise over the next 12 months, up from 87.2 percent in June.

http://www.forbes.com/afxnewslimited/feeds/afx/2008/08/12/afx5312023.htm...

Lithuania

Consumer confidence in LIthuania  fell to minus 4 points in October from 1 point in September, the Statistics Department reported. People were more pessimistic about the country's economic prospects in October than they were in September. They also felt less confident about their household finances and possibilities of saving any money in the coming year, it said.

Consumer confidence in urban and rural areas fell by 5 percentage points in each group, to minus 2 and minus 7, respectively. A year-on-year comparison also shows a decline of 5 percentage points in October's consumer confidence index.
The percentage of respondents who expected that the country's economic situation would deteriorate increased to 32 pct last month from 18 pct a year ago.

TFN.newsdesk@thomson.com

Malta

The Central Bank’s surveys of business perceptions, published with the Quarterly Review last week, shows that all three areas surveyed – services, industries and consumers – reported increased optimism during the third quarter of the year. Consumer confidence too improved during the second quarter of the year, with the seasonally-unadjusted index of consumer confidence in Malta published by the European Commission going up by 15 points to -13.

The seasonally-adjusted measure showed a more moderate pick-up, with the index rising 12 points over the quarter to -17 in June.  The Central Bank’s survey of 160 firms, mainly providers of services, showed increased output, profits and employment during the third quarter and anticipates further growth in turnover in the last quarter of the year.

http://www.independent.com.mt/news.asp?newsitemid=61418

Mexico
Consumer confidence in M4xico fell to its lowest level since the country began measuring the index in 2001 as shoppers cope with the highest inflation in more than three years and eye forecasts for slower growth. The index decreased to 88.4 from 90.7 in June, the agency said today. Economists had estimated confidence would fall to 89.8, according to the median of 11 forecasts compiled by Bloomberg.
 
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=aVs41R2eNmJ0&refer=l...

Middle East
The 3rd Bayt.com Quarterly Consumer Confidence Index shows:• Consumers in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and UAE less likely to spend• More pessimistic attitude on spending in most countries• Employee confidence low in Qatar and Saudi Arabia

http://business.todaynominated.com/2007/12/23/decline-in-mid-east-consum...

Consumer confidence in the Middle East has taken a blow, with the recent poll conducted by Bayt.com and YouGovSiraj, showing a significant dip in the propensity to spend.  Consumers are increasingly unsure about their expenditure in the face of rising living costs and a slowdown in some of the regional economies. Optimism remains however amongst consumers who believe the situation will improve in the next few months.

http://www.ameinfo.com/140258.html

Netherlands

Consumer confidence in Holland   fell to minus 31  inJulycompared with minus 19 in June, Statistics Netherlands (CBS) said on Tuesday. CBS said consumer confidence is collapsing, adding the decline in confidence in July was one of the largest ever recorded.

http://www.forbes.com/afxnewslimited/feeds/afx/2008/07/29/afx5263291.htm...

 
New Zealand

Consumer Confidence ratingin New Zealand  is 109.9 - up 2.6 points from early September and the highest since early March (116.8 points). Despite another rise in the NZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating it remains 9.9 points below the level it was a year ago of 119.8. The rise in the New Zealand Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating was driven predominantly by New Zealanders' feeling more positive about their financial situation over the past twelve months.

Gary Morgan says:"The inevitable unscheduled September 11 decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to cut interest rates by 0.5% has given renewed confidence to New Zealanders."For the first time since early 2007 a majority of New Zealanders are positive about the New Zealand economy over the next five years. The turmoil on international financial markets though means the RBNZ must keep cutting interest rates aggressively to avoid a prolonged recession that New Zealand can't afford to have."

Full Details: http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2008/797

New Zealand consumer confidence rose to a five-year high after the central bank began cutting interest rates, buoying expectations the economy will pull out of a recession late this year. Fifty percent of 1,000 people polled last week said the economy will improve in the next 12 months, according to a Colmar Brunton poll for Television New Zealand. Optimism rose from 44 percent in August and 28 percent in July, and was the highest since July 2002.

Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard cut interest rates for the first time in five years on July 24 and followed that with a larger-than-expected cut of half a percentage point last week. The economy is expected to contract in the third quarter before growth resumes in the final three months of the year, the central bank forecasts.  `Downside risks to the economy appear to have abated,'' said Shamubeel Eaqub, an economist at Goldman Sachs JBWere Ltd. in Auckland. Still ``optimists are likely to be disappointed by a lack of real economic recovery for some months.''

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=at8S6QkGD3rY&refer=a...

Phillippines

Consumer confidence  in the Phillippines weakened in the fourth quarter as barangay election jitters as well as security threats arising from the Glorietta mall explosion swamped positive sentiment arising from robust economic growth, the latest household survey commissioned by the Philippine central bank, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, said.  The overall consumer confidence index in the fourth quarter declined by 10 index points to -33.6 percent versus the index a quarter ago, largely driven by pessimism among households outside the National Capital Region.

"Consumers' apprehensions may have partly reflected the concerns regarding uncertainty on the orderly conduct and outcome of the barangay elections, political noises and threats of terrorism during the survey period" in October, BSP Officer-in-Charge Diwa Guinigundo said in a press briefing Friday.  Since a large proportion of household respondents belonged to the lower income group (59.1 percent), Guinigundo said the pessimistic outlook pulled down the overall consumer confidence index.

"There are more people saying that the outlook seems less bright compared to earlier responses. This is their perception for the outlook on economic and family conditions. But if you look at their buying conditions, most of these are positive, which means that ... their intention to buy or spend their money, which is the one we're focusing on, they're all positive," Guinigundo explained.

http://business.inquirer.net/money/breakingnews/view_article.php?article...

Qatar

 Qatar  has shown a large decline in consumer confidence among countries in the Middle East at 91.6 apoints  a regional survey indicates. This means a  8.4 in Qatar as compared to the April study, also done by regional online jobsite Bayt.com and YouGov Siraj, the largest full-service market research company in the Middle East.

Residents in the three countries (UAE,Qatar andSaudi Arabia) have also become pessimistic in their financial future and career growth. Eight per cent fewer respondents, compared to the previous study, in the UAE saying they are less optimistic about good changes in business conditions and four per cent more admitting to the negative impact of high inflation on their business."There is an overall rising concern about salaries not being able to match the growing inflation," Bayt.com and YouGov said in a statement yesterday, on their quarterly study called The Consumer Confidence Index.

The latest study shows that consumers in the region are now reluctant to spend their money the way they used to, as buyer confidence has been eroded by the rising costs of living and a slowdown in some of the regional economies. But optimism remains among the majority of consumers, believing that the situation will improve over the next few months, the statement said.

http://www.gulfbase.com/site/interface/NewsArchiveDetails.aspx?n=47526

 Saudi Arabia

Consumer confidence  in Saudi Arabia fell to 88.9 points  a regional survey indicates.  This means a 11.1 in Saudi Arabia, as compared to the April study, also done by regional online jobsite Bayt.com and YouGov Siraj, the largest full-service market research company in the Middle East.  Residents in the three countries studied- UAE, Qatar andSaudi Arabia) have also become pessimistic in their financial future and career growth. Eight per cent fewer respondents, compared to the previous study, in the UAE saying they are less optimistic about good changes in business conditions and four per cent more admitting to the negative impact of high inflation on their business."There is an overall rising concern about salaries not being able to match the growing inflation," Bayt.com and YouGov said in a statement yesterday, on their quarterly study called The Consumer Confidence Index.

The latest study shows that consumers in the region are now reluctant to spend their money the way they used to, as buyer confidence has been eroded by the rising costs of living and a slowdown in some of the regional economies. But optimism remains among the majority of consumers, believing that the situation will improve over the next few months, the statement said.

http://www.gulfbase.com/site/interface/NewsArchiveDetails.aspx?n=47526

Slovenia
Optimism among consumers and positive outlook in the services sector enhanced business confidence in Slovenia over the past month, according to the national Statistics Office. The seasonally adjusted business sentiment indicator for July was 14 percentage points above the long-term average, while it was also 1 percentage point above June's figure and 4 points above that recorded in July 2006. The indicator in the services sector was up 4 percentage points on June and 6 points above last year's figure. The consumer confidence index was 2 percentage points higher than the month before, mainly owning to consumers' optimism about the state of economy in the coming 12 months.

http://www.stat.si/eng/novica_prikazi.aspx?id=1029 

South Africa

South African consumer confidence had its biggest drop in 24 years in the second quarter as oil prices surged to a record and interest rates climbed, a survey showed.

The FNB/BER consumer confidence index fell 18 points to minus 6 from the previous three months, First National Bank and the Bureau for Economic Research said in an e-mailed statement today. Last quarter's reading was the lowest in more than four years.

South Africa's government has increased gasoline prices by 43 percent to a record this year, while the central bank has raised interest rates six times in a year. Consumers account for about two-thirds of expenditure in the economy and a decline in their spending may undermine economic growth in Africa's biggest economy, increasing the likelihood of recession as early as the fourth quarter, First National Bank said.

``The outlook is a miserable one, with even lower consumer confidence readings expected over the next 12 months,'' Cees Bruggemans, First National Bank's chief economist, said in the statement. ``The continued rapid loss of confidence from record high levels in 2007 is making recession in the broader economy ever more likely, possibly starting in either the fourth quarter of 2008 or the first quarter of 2009.''

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601116&sid=aiRnW1ncfNw0&refer=a...

South Korea
Consumer spending in South Korea has been weakening due to a sharp increase in consumer prices and a volatile stock market, the Korea Development Institute or KDI said Monday, in its latest economic assessment report.  The government data showed earlier that the consumer-related indexes fell in December for the second consecutive month.

The KDI expects the CPI, which soared to a forty-month high of 3.9% in January, will moderate going forward. This was based on expectation that crude oil and commodity prices will likely stabilize in the short term. The institute also anticipates that stability would be restored in stock prices, following the sharp correction recently.

http://www.rttnews.com/forex/economicnews.asp?date=02/10/2008&item=11

Spain

Consumer confidence in Spain fell to its second-lowest ever reading of 49.5 points in September from 51.4 points in August, Spain's Official Credit Institute said on Thurday.
The September result was above a record low of 46.3 reached in July.

http://www.forbes.com/afxnewslimited/feeds/afx/2008/10/02/afx5499354.htm...
l

Sweden

Swedish consumer confidence fell to a 13-year low in July while inflation expectations kept rising, a think tank said on Thursday, underlining a policy headache for the country's central bank.  Consumer confidence fell to a worse-than-expected minus 18.2 points in July from minus 10.2 points in June, a survey by state-run National Institute of Economic Research (NIER) showed.

'The situation in the Swedish economy has consequently gone from weaker than normal to much weaker than normal,' the institute said in a release. 'Consumers and the private service sector in particular made a negative contribution.  The median forecast in a Reuters poll of analysts had been for minus 12.0.

The institute's economic sentiment indicator also pointed to increased gloom, dropping to 89.0 from a downwardly revised 93.3 in June.  Further, the quarterly seasonally adjusted manufacturing business confidence gauge deteriorated to minus 9 points, compared from the previous quarterly reading of plus 2 points.

At the same time inflation expectations -- a key concern for the central bank -- rose to the highest level since the start of the survey in the early 1990s, the NIER said.  Swedish households expect 3.7 percent inflation 12 months ahead versus expectations for 3.3 percent in the June report.

http://www.forbes.com/afxnewslimited/feeds/afx/2008/07/31/afx5273910.htm...

Taiwan'

A business climate index for manufacturers rose last month while the reading for the service industry dipped, a think tank survey released yesterday showed, painting a mixed picture of the nation's economic health.Local manufacturers' confidence last month rose to a three-year high, despite the uncertainties of raw material price fluctuations, the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research (TIER, 台經院) said in a report.
The business climate index for the manufacturing industry for last month climbed by 2.29 to 121.5 points, the highest figure since August 2004, the institute's tallies showed.The Taipei-based institute attributed manufacturers' optimism about business prospects to two reasons: the increasing demand for Taiwanese goods in the nation's major export markets and the approach of high season for their products.
Based on the institute's survey, manufacturers who viewed the economy optimistically increased by 2.8 percent last month, while those who believed the economy was worsening decreased by 0.6 percent. On the economic outlook for the next six months, 38.6 percent of manufacturers said that they were optimistic, up from 34.7 percent when the same survey was conducted in July, the report said.
About 19.6 percent of those polled said they were pessimistic about the economy, up from 16.9 percent in the previous month, while 41.9 percent believed the economy would neither improve nor worsen during the next six months, down from 48.4 percent, it said.

 http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/archives/2007/09/29/2003380967

Thailand

Thailand's consumer confidence index in March continued to edge upward although the public remained concerned about living costs and political stability, according to the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC).

Saovanee Thairungroj, deputy dean of UTCC's Research Department, said on Thursday that the consumer confidence index in three key categories had increased in March.  Thanawat Palavichai, director of the UTTC Economic and Business Forecasting Center, said the consumer confidence index edged up for the fifth consecutive month.The index on the overall economy rose to 73.8 from 72.6 in February, that on the job opportunities to 73.5 from 72.7, and that on future incomes to 94.6 from 93.2.

http://enews.mcot.net/view.php?id=3719

Due to deteriorations in consumers’ assessments of purchasing power and the general economic situation and job opportunities in the coming period, the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) decreased by 0.82 percent month-on-month in June. The Consumer Tendency Survey conducted monthly by the Turkish Statistics Institute (Turkstat) and the Central Bank of Turkey announced the results of consumer behavior and expectations for June yesterday, revealing that the CCI had fallen from the May level of 94.96 to 94.17

http://www.todayszaman.com/tz-web/detaylar.do?load=detay&link=117472 

United Arab Emirates 

The UAE, has shown  a greater declines in consumer confidence among countries in the Middle East at  88.9 points respectively, a regional survey indicates.This means a 6.6-point decline in the UAE, 8.4 in Qatar and 11.1 in Saudi Arabia, as compared to the April study, also done by regional online jobsite Bayt.com and YouGov Siraj, the largest full-service market research company in the Middle East.

Residents in the three countries have also become pessimistic in their financial future and career growth. Eight per cent fewer respondents, compared to the previous study, in the UAE saying they are less optimistic about good changes in business conditions and four per cent more admitting to the negative impact of high inflation on their business."There is an overall rising concern about salaries not being able to match the growing inflation," Bayt.com and YouGov said in a statement yesterday, on their quarterly study called The Consumer Confidence Index.

The latest study shows that consumers in the region are now reluctant to spend their money the way they used to, as buyer confidence has been eroded by the rising costs of living and a slowdown in some of the regional economies. But optimism remains among the majority of consumers, believing that the situation will improve over the next few months, the statement said.

http://www.gulfbase.com/site/interface/NewsArchiveDetails.aspx?n=47526
 

United Kingdom

Consumer confidence in the United Kingdom held near a record low in August, strengthening the case for lower interest rates.  The pound also had its biggest monthly drop in almost 16 years versus the dollar yesterday after London-based research firm GfK NOP said a confidence index based on a survey of 2,001 people rose 3 points from July's minus 39, which was the weakest since the data began in 1974. Gilts rose, pushing the yield on the 10-year bond to near the lowest level since April.

``This is more bad news for sterling,'' said Lutz Karpowitz, a currency strategist in Frankfurt at Commerzbank AG, Germany's second-biggest lender. ``It underlines the picture we have that the U.K. economy is heading for a recession.'' The pound may drop to 81 pence per euro by year-end, he forecast.

The U.K. currency fell as much as 0.4 percent to 80.69 pence per euro, the weakest level since April 16. It dropped 2.3 percent in August, the steepest monthly decline since March. The pound fell to $1.8190, posting its biggest one-month drop since sinking 12 percent in October 1992.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601102&sid=ayJ1_pdVqqCY&refer=u...

U.K. consumer confidence stayed at a four-year low in August and services from banks to recruiters shrank as the country edged closer to a recession.    An index of shoppers' sentiment held at 52, the lowest since the survey began in May 2004, Nationwide Building Society said today. While the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply's index of services growth unexpectedly increased today, it still held below 50 for a fourth month, indicating contraction.

The economy stagnated in the second quarter as banks pared lending and higher oil prices forced Britons to spend more on fuel, choking off households' spending. The Bank of England will probably still keep the key interest rate unchanged tomorrow after inflation accelerated to the fastest in a decade.  Sometime in the middle of the year the economy went into recession,'' said Willem Buiter, a former Bank of England policy maker, in a Bloomberg Television interview today. ``The uncertainty'' about the economy and inflation ``is so great that there is no compelling case for raising or cutting rates.''

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aFiR6kO8WDKY&refer=h...
 
United States of America 

Consumer confidence  for America reports show an increase for the month of August, noting the lower prices at the pump. A survey done by the University of Michigan shows consumer confidence at 63.0 percent, which is the highest since March.

However, for the third month in a row the majority of respondents indicated that their financial situation has worsened. Consumer spending rose 0.2 percent as expected, however; inflation-adjusted spending fell 0.4 percent, which is the biggest decline since June 2004 and second consecutive month of losses.

“Consumers are certainly worried about the job and housing markets but lower gasoline prices have given them some tangible relief and we are seeing that relief expressed in the various consumer confidence figures,” said Lynn Reaser, chief economist at Bank of America Capital Management in Boston.

IConsumer confidence in the USA made a small gain in September, at 59.8 for September, up from 58.5 in August.according to the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index based on a representative sample of 5,000 U.S. households.

"September's increase in the Consumer Confidence Index was due solely to an improvement in the short-term outlook,” says Lynn Franco, director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center. “However, these results did not capture all of the tumultuous events in the financial sector this month, and until the dust settles a bit more, we will not know the full impact on consumers' expectations. Shocks, such as the 1987 crash, generally tend to have a temporary adverse affect on confidence, lasting on average two to four months, unless they result in significant job losses. Just as noteworthy, consumers' assessment of current conditions continues to indicate that the current economic environment remains quite weak."

Those who said business conditions are "bad" increased to 34.2 percent from 32.7 percent, while those claiming business conditions are "good" fell to 12.5 percent from 13.7 percent in August. Those saying jobs are "hard to get" climbed to 32.8 percent from 31.7 percent in August, while those claiming jobs are "plentiful" decreased to 12.2 percent from 13.5 percent.  Consumers' short-term outlook improved again. Those who expected business conditions to worsen over the next six months shrunk to 21.3 percent from 25.2 percent, while those expecting conditions to improve rose to 13.5 percent from 12.0 percent.

http://www.bizjournals.com/austin/stories/2008/09/29/daily23.html
 

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