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Consumer confidence is showing signs that the US sub-prime crisis is still shaking national confidence levels not only in the American markets but in Europe and Britainwith Consumer Confidence sinking to record lows and the Fed having to bail out an ever increasing number of finncial institutions. The better than 80% track record between confidence  confidencemeasures by the Conference Board and Michigan University Consumer Sentiment Index  and subsequent spending patterns over two decades lends credence to the view that Asia is still booming, European business and consumer confidence is still the best forward trend predictor now that the ever upwards movement of  oil prices and the price of gold seems to be levelling off a little. Watch for the risk of a collapse of major banks as nations move into recessionary conditions.

Federal Reserve's Bernanke is still considering  the rising risk of an inflationary breakout after oil headed through $150 a barrel before coming to a more realistic level as Congress  put a floor under falling financial instituions and further private bank collapse and the Federal Reserve ponders whether to start raising rates again to curb inflation.  Speculators are pushing  for one more  cut to counter declining retail sales and the credit crunch  (see USA column below)  with considerable variation between its State's levels of consumer conidence and business confidence. Some states are already resuming their usual levels of hubris and optimism that they will be OK.

Australia appears to be facing an inflation breakout leading to it going in the opposite direction with Glenn Stevensholding further rate increasses as national growth rates turn downn..   So its USA down, Australia steady  and watch the BRIC economies capture market share in world trade. Expect a world wide slow down in consumer spending and early signs of stagflation around the globe, despite rising commodity prices and watch oil fluctuate a little above  $100  a barrel in a years time while  gold moves  steadily downwards  to around US$800 as consumers respond to the flood of bailout funds from the five major central banks,  lose confidence in the commodity boom as an investment hedge and start to regain an appetite for risk..

After months of speculation and uncertainty around the global economy, it appears the penny has finally dropped for the world’s consumers. Consumer confidence worldwide has fallen to its lowest level in several years, according to the Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Index, the definitive gauge of consumer sentiment around economic and social concerns.  The latest Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index has  plunged to 88 - down six points in the last six months – the largest  single drop the Index has recorded in the last three years.  The investment community will be watching profits and divident opportunities  not cash flow 
http://www2.acnielsen.com/reports/index_consumer.shtml

Consumer Confidence -  our global summary

Argentina

Argentina’s benchmark inflation-linked bonds have tumbled 24 percent this year, making the country’s debt market the worst performer in the world, according to data compiled by JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Bloomberg.  Polls show that Fernandez is the front-runner to replace Kirchner in next week’s elections. She rebuts claims by government statisticians that Kirchner’s administration forced them to tamper with consumer price data to hide the extent of inflation. Merrill Lynch & Co., the world’s biggest brokerage, estimates prices may be rising at a 17 percent annual pace, double the official rate.

“Argentine inflation-linked debt is the single worst long- term asset in all of emerging-markets,'’ said Paul McNamara, who manages more than $1 billion of fixed-income at London-based Augustus Asset Managers. He sold his holdings of the securities when government workers said in February that they were told to eliminate prices from the index.  About 40 percent of the nation’s $136 billion debt is inflation-based securities, whose principal rises and falls with the consumer price index. Bondholders have lost out on $250 million in interest payments this year, Merrill Lynch estimates. By reducing the official rate, the government will save $5 billion in principal payments at maturity, data from the New York-based firm show.

http://commonsensewonder.com/?p=2663
 

Australia

Consumer Confidence in Australian dropped  to 90.1 - the lowest since December 1991 according to the  August Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 90.1, the lowest since December 1991, down 1.9 points from July 2008 and 35.1 points lower than August 2007.

The decline in the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence is mainly due to more Australians feeling negative about purchasing major household items. Now in August, 40% (up 8% - the highest since the current question was first asked in January 1994) of Australians feel that now is a bad time to buy major household items, while only 32% (down 4% in a month, since July) of Australians say that now is a good time to buy.

Now 48% (unchanged in a month) of Australians expecting bad times for the economy in the next 12 months while only 18% (down 1%) expect good times.  43% (up 3%) of Australians felt they are worse off than this time last year and just 25% (down 3%) of Australians feel better off.   Looking to the future, only 35% (unchanged) of Australians expect to be better off this time next year while 25% (down 4%) of Australians expect to be worse off next year.  In the next five years 28% (down 5%) of Australians are expecting bad times, while 25% (down 1%) expect good times.   

Gary Morgan says: “The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is the lowest since December 1991- a result of the high petrol prices and interest rates.

http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2008/4312/

 The Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index climbed 9.1%, or 7.2 points, to 86.2 in August, the third biggest jump in the past five years. The index was still 22.4% lower than in August last year, having hit a 16-year low in July on worries over high interest rates and fuel prices.

The index measuring the state of finances compared to a year ago jumped 18% in August, while that for finances over the coming 12 months climbed 16.9%.  Consumers were also feeling better about the economic outlook for the next 12 months, with that index rising 14.8%. Still, they remained worried about the longer term, with the index measuring economic conditions for the next five years dropping 3.7%.

http://business.theage.com.au/business/surprise-rebound-in-consumer-conf...

Baltic

Lending behavior had changed within the last four to five months in Latvia and Estonia, and cited a "clear decline" in new loans, compared with peak monthly levels and the average levels of the last three to four years.  The recent decline in consumer confidence in the Baltics was not affecting the peoples confidence in the banks, since the Baltic market is small compared with the size of the banking groups involved. (Estonian consumer confidence fell during August to its lowest level in almost two years because of worsening expectations about household and state finances).

Consistent with analysts' downbeat pronouncements on the state of the economy, the July results from TNS CanadianFacts' Consumer Confidence Index paint a similar shaky picture.
    "Waning consumer confidence is further evidence of softening domestic demand and bad news for Canadian business. The decline comes as the Bank ofCanada places emphasis on the downside risk of higher inflation rather than onstimulating demand," said Richard Jenkins, vice-president of TNS CanadianFacts and director of the marketing research firm's monthly tracking study.
    The overall Consumer Confidence Index is at 96.5 for July after falling from 97.8 in June. Although the monthly decline was relatively small, theoverall index is significantly below the 109.0 high recorded in November 2007. In just eight months, the index has gone down by 11.5 per cent. Recent declines reflect a deterioration of current conditions rather than just expectations for the future. The Present Situation Index, which captures evaluations of the overall state of the economy and the employment situation, stands at 106.4 (down significantly from 110.1 in June). The Expectations Index, which measures consumers' estimation of the economy, household income and employment in the next six months, rose slightly after reaching a low in June. The July index value is 94.4 (up slightly from 92.4 in June).
    The Buy Index, which gauges the degree to which people think the current period is a good time to make major purchases, dropped slightly. The index now is at 85.6 (down from 86.8 last month). Only 29 per cent of Canadians currently think this is a good time to make a major purchase. "Although confidence has not completely evaporated, we expect more and more consumers to retreat from making major purchases and scale back discretionary spending," added Jenkins.

http://www.newswire.ca/en/releases/archive/July2008/24/c7017.html

China

China Consumer Confidence Index (CCCI) was updated today, with the survey results showing that consumer confidence fell by another one point to 95.8 in February after a stabilization in January, affected by the sharp stock market falls starting mid-to-late January and the snow storm disasters in the southern part of China right before the Chinese New Year.

Consumer sentiment on current conditions fell 1 point in February, led by a fall in the purchase intention for durable goods probably caused by the fall in the stock market. Current personal finances, on the contrary, improved for the second consecutive month. Consumer expectations fell further from their peak in July, dropping 0.9 point in February. Among the three components of the overall expectations index, both the index measuring personal finances in one year and the index measuring business outlook in one year fell, while the index measuring business outlook in five years rose slightly.

Under the support of the Xinhua Finance family, Xinhua Finance eziData China Consumer Confidence Index is produced monthly by eziData, a local provider of China consumer data, and in association with Dr. Richard Curtin. Dr. Curtin is Research Professor and Director of the Consumer Sentiment Surveys at the University of Michigan's Institute of Social Research. The survey this month was conducted through 1,541 telephone interviews from February 1 to 4, and 15 to 17, 2008 (avoiding the Chinese New Year holidays). April 2007 survey results are set as the benchmark value of 100. More on the survey methodology can be found in the accompanying section.

The sharp stock market falls after mid January had caused significant losses to the investment returns on the part of the consumers, with a sharp month-on-month drop in cumulative 12-month investment returns only next to the drop seen in November 2007. However, consumer's expectations on the future of the stock market did not collapse in February. Instead, it rebounded slightly after a plunge posted the month before, suggesting sufficient confidence among average investors in the current stock index for a rebound.

As the government control on the real estate market deepened, overall consumer sentiment on house buying in the year ahead plunged in February, indicating a further decline on the part of the buyers.

http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/industries/media/article/china-consum...

Czechoslovakia 

Czech consumer confidence indicator rose to 102.5 in February from 92.9 in January, the statistical office said Wednesday. A year ago, the index stood at 106.
Meanwhile, the business confidence indicator decreased to 105.4 from 106.3 in January and 106.8 in the year ago period. The composite indicator recorded 104.9, up from 104 in January.

http://www.rttnews.com/forex/economicnews.asp?date=02/27/2008&item=11

Confidence in Czech economy grew in January after eight months and the aggregate indicator increased by 1.6 points month-on-month, the Czech Statistical Office (CSU) said Monday. Consumer confidence indicator was up 4.7 percent, while business confidence increased by just 0.7 point compared with December. The January poll showed consumers expected the overall economic and financial situation to improve moderately in the next 12 months. Expectations of unemployment also improved and returned to long-term favourable values. The percentage of respondents planning to save money, however, dropped, the CSU said.

The big deterioration in the sentiment in the previous months was caused mainly by concerns about the reform measures combined with a strong growth in food prices at the end of the year. Year-on-year, overall confidence indicator dropped 3.4 points in January. Business confidence indicator fell by 1.4 points on the year, while consumer confidence was 11.8 points lower.Overall, the confidence indicator in industry decreased slightly (by 0.3 point), mth/mth, showing the same value as in January 2007, the CSU said.

In construction, the assessment of current economic situation decreased slightly mth/mth in January. Expectations of the economic situation development for the period of the next three months are lower than in December, for next six months they are slightly higher.  On the other hand, the assessment of current total demand increased. For the period of the next three months respondents expect a favourable development of construction works and employment to continue.

 http://www.praguemonitor.com/en/261/czech_business/17816/

 Denmark

 Denmark's consumer confidence index fell to minus 9.7 in July from minus 6.6 in June, Denmark's national statistics office said on Thursday.In a Reuters poll, analysts had forecast a reading of minus 7.5.For further details in Danish, Reuters 3000 Xtra users can click on http://www.dst.dk

http://www.forbes.com/afxnewslimited/feeds/afx/2008/07/24/afx5248420.htm...

England'

The Bank of England issued a gloomy outlook for the UK’s financial markets, noting that the credit, equity, and commercial property markets remain “vulnerable to further adjustments.” The BOE pointed the finger at a sharp slowdown in the US economy and rising credit defaults that “could trigger a further round of asset price falls.” While this analysis does not necessarily suggest that the central bank will be aiming to cut rates in the near-term, it does effectively eliminate much of the probabilities of a rate hike. Indeed, BOE Governor Mervyn King is a staunch hawk and extremely hesitant to enact policies that create the potential for moral hazard to come into play – though one could argue that the BOE’s bailout and guarantee of funds at Northern Rock just a few weeks ago was the epitome of just this. Nevertheless, until UK data starts to reflect a more pronounced economic slowdown and easing in price pressures, interest rates in the UK will likely hold at 5.75 percent until at least Q1 2008..

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/US_Dollar_At_Record_Low__1193435432242...

Europe
The European Commission has also now reported its eurozone “economic sentiment” indicator for March, with the composite number bouncing back a little from the February reading which its lowest level since December 2005. The indicator, which gauges optimism across all economic sectors and is regarded as a good guide to likely future trends, was back up to 102 after falling to 100.1 in February from 101.7 in January. As we can see in some of the counries shown in the chart below, the picture is a mixed one, with Germany for the time being holding reasonably stable, climbing back to 104 from 103.7 in February, Ireland hovering nervously, Italy continuing its steady downward path, and Spain continuing to head steadily off the map. The March reading in Spain was 83.9 which was down from 87.5 in February. I suppose here it is a case of how low can you go before you hit bottom. Yet awhile I suspect.  France meanwhile continues to hold up fairly well, rising to a composite 105.6, from 105.2 in February.

http://globaleconomydoesmatter.blogspot.com/2008/04/eurozone-services-an...

The broad-based decline in confidence suggests that the economy will continue to slow, and increases the likelihood that the European Central Bank will cut its key interest rate later this year. However, with the inflation rate hitting a record high of 3.2% in January, the ECB is unlikely to ease rates in next few months.  The European Commission's January survey of sentiment in the euro zone, published Thursday, showed the headline measure of consumer confidence fell to -12 from -9 in December, a larger decline that the drop to -10 that was forecast by economists. The measure of industrial confidence fell to +1 from +2, in line with expectations, while the measure of confidence among service providers dropped to +12 from +14.

http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?StoryId=60b3b45c-59...
9/

Finland

 
Consumer confidence indicators in Finland plummeted to new historic lows in July as gloomy global economic outlook hit consumers and businesses,  Finnish consumer confidence fell to +6.5 points in July -- to its lowest level in more than six years --from +10.2 points in June, Statistics Finland (SF) said.  The indicator has fallen from a six-year high to a six-year low in 13 months.

Consumers are much more pessimistic about the national economy than their own, the statistics office said. Their expectations of Finland's economy were the gloomiest since 1990, when Finland entered a recession.  'Is is somewhat surprising consumer confidence has weakened so much in Finland,' said think-tank ETLA economist Pasi Sorjonen.

'Other data shows that we are not doing as bad as confidence indicators make it seem,' he said adding retails sales have been at a good level. 'But people follow business news, and they have been negative lately, and that brings the sentiment down.'

Finnish economy has grown at about twice the euro-zone average in the past two years. Most economists expect Finland's gross domestic product (GDP) growth to be 2.5 to 3 percent this year and slightly less in 2009.  About half the consumers thought in July that the economy would deteriorate in the next 12 months, while 12 percent believed that Finland's economic situation would improve.

But a quarter of consumers believed in July that their own economy would improve while 17 percent of them feared it would worsen over the year. Consumers' expectations about their own economic situation were the most cautious since 1996, Statistics Finland said.

http://www.forbes.com/afxnewslimited/feeds/afx/2008/07/28/afx5258737.html

Consumer confidence in France fell to a record low for the fifth consecutive month in May as concern about inflation made households downbeat about the health of their finances and compounded their reluctance to spend.

National statistics office INSEE's barometer of consumer morale in the euro zone's second biggest economy fell to minus 41, the lowest since the series began in January 1987, from a revised minus 38 in April, data showed on Wednesday.

That was worse than expected by economists, whose consensus forecast had been for a reading of minus 38 compared with the minus 37 which had initially been reported for April.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/7544723

France

Consumer confidence in France fell to a record low in July as inflation accelerated to the fastest pace in 12 years, eroding households' purchasing power.  As prices for food and energy rise, consumers have less disposable income, damping domestic demand. A decline in household spending, which accounts for 57 percent of gross domestic product, would weaken an economy set to grow at the slowest pace since 2003 this year as a global slowdown erodes export sales.

A gauge of consumer sentiment dropped to minus 48, the lowest since the index was introduced in 1987, from minus 46 in June, the Paris-based national statistics office, Insee, said in a statement today. Economists expected a decline to minus 47, according to the median of 20 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey.

France's economy, the third largest in Europe, is expected to expand about 1.6 percent this year, according to Insee. Inflation in France accelerated to 4 percent in June, the fastest pace in more than 12 years, based on a European Union harmonized method, Insee said.  French consumer spending, which accounts for about 15 percent of retail sales, fell in June, prompting retailers to reduce annual targets for profit and sales. Business confidence fell to the lowest in more than three years in July.

http://beritabiz.blogspot.com/2008/07/french-july-consumer-confidence.ht...
 

Germany
Consumer Confidence in Germany fell to a five year low on the basis of  recession fears, financial turmoil and surging energy prices. The consumer climate indicator produced by market research firm GfK fell to 2.1 points for August after a revised 3.6 in July, its lowest reading since June 2003.  Record price increases led by soaring energy prices have left consumers increasingly worried about their purchasing power, undercutting income and economic expectations.

Economic data from the euro zone and Germany last week raised potential recession alarms among economists. A preliminary July purchasing managers index pointed to a further contraction in activity in the manufacturing and service sectors, while the closely-watched Ifo Business Climate Index for industry and trade in Germany posted a much sharper than expected decline

Rising worries about a recession and ongoing turmoil in financial markets contributed to the economic fears reflected in Monday's consumer confidence data, GfK said. Worries about purchasing power led to a renewed reduction in consumers' propensity to buy, GfK said, although the fall is more moderate than the drop in income expectations. 

GfK's economic expectations index fell by 15.5 points in July to stand at -8, the lowest reading since November 2005. The income expectations indicator also dropped, 12.8 points in July, to -20, the lowest reading since August 2004.
The indicator measuring consumers' propensity to buy dropped 2.5 points to -26.2 points, but is down 35 points from a year ago, GfK said.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/german-consumer-confidence-hits-fi...

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080428/bs_afp/germanyeconomyconsumerforeca...

 
Greece

Greek economic sentiment improved in July as stronger business confidence in retail trade lifted the index to 109.1 points from 108.9 in June, the Foundation for Economic and Industrial Research (IOBE) said yesterday. The overall economic climate index is based on business expectations sub-indices covering industry, construction, retail trade, services and consumer confidence. The index remained above its 2000-06 moving average and slightly higher than a 106.4 reading in the same month a year earlier, IOBE said. “The slight rise in the index is due primarily to the significant rise in the retail trade index. The forecast for producer trends and orders in the near future is positive. Conversely, consumer confidence weakened slightly,” IOBE said. (Reuters)

http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/news/economy_&xml/&aspKath/economy.asp...

Hong Kong

 Feb. 19, 2008 (China Knowledge) - Hong Kong's seasonally unemployment rate in January is estimated to remain the lowest level at 3.4% in more than nine years, the same as last December, which is expected to increase consumers' confidence and spending. With the strong backing of the mainland booming economy, banks, retailers and law firms in Hong Kong are increasing hiring. "Hong Kong's labor market

http://www.chinaknowledge.com/News/news-detail.aspx?type=1&id=13423

Hungary

Consumer Confidence in Hungary showed a slight improvement with a reading of minus 47.6 in February, up from minus 47.8 in the prior month.The Hungarian business confidence index improved to minus 6.7 in February from minus 9.7 in January, the latest monthly business survey by the GKI Economic Research Co. revealed Monday.  Hence, the GKI economic sentiment index, which is the weighted average of the consumer confidence index and the business confidence index improved to minus 17.3 in February from minus 19.6 in January.

Business confidence improved in February while consumer confidence stagnated, according to economic think-tank GKI's combined confidence index.   Consumer sentiment stood at -47.6 in February, compared to -47.8 in January.improved while that of employment in the sector declined.  After a heavy fall in January, the retail-sector index registered a big gain in February, but was still low compared to other sectors. The outlook on sales improved.The services sector's index grew sharply, continuing on an optimist trend started several months ago. The outlook for general business grew slightly while expectations for turnover and staff numbers improved significantly from January.Consumer expectations on the economy were unchanged from January.

http://english.mti.hu/default.asp?menu=1&theme=2&cat=25&newsid=250579

India

Consumer confidence inI India  dipped to 133 in the recent leg of the Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Index is the third consecutive one since its peak score of 137 in late 2006.  After topping the Index five times in a row, it has now moved to the second spot, behind Norway, in the November 2007 survey conducted by The Nielsen Company.   Thirty-eight per cent Indian respondents consider job prospects in the country excellent, and 57 per cent respondents consider the job prospects good. With a figure of 95 per cent, Indians are the second most optimistic as far as the job market in the next 12 months is concerned.

This is in line with consumer sentiments worldwide. According to the latest Global Consumer Confidence study, more than a quarter of global consumers expect a global recession in 2008, resulting in a dip in confidence in 21 of the 48 markets Nielsen surveyed. Twenty-seven per cent of the Indian respondents, too, fear a global recession in the next 12 months.

http://stockam.wordpress.com/2008/03/10/concerned-but-optimistic/

Indonesia

Consumer confidence rosein Indonedsia in July after falling for eight straight months, indicating that less respondents expressed pessimism about current economic conditions and the economic outlook for Indonesia, according to a central bank survey released on Tuesday. 'After falling since November 2007, the consumer confidence index in July bounced back by 3 points from the previous month, although it was still in pessimism territory,' the central bank said in a statement.   A central bank survey of 4,600 households in 18 cities across Indonesia showed the consumer confidence index rose to 82.1 points in July from 79.1 points in June.   Meanwhile, the consumer expectations index, which gauges confidence in the economic outlook for the next six months, increased to 91.3 points from 85.2 points.

http://www.forbes.com/afxnewslimited/feeds/afx/2008/08/12/afx5312093.htm...

Ireland

Consumer confidence in Ireland fell for the sixth consecutive month in July as concerns over rising costs led to caution among households.  The IIB/ESRI index of consumer sentiment, published yesterday, dropped to a new record low of 39.6 last month, down from 42.2 in June. This is the lowest reading since the index began in 1996.

NCB analyst John Sheehan said home registration figures meant that the number of new homes built in the Republic next year could be less than 30,000, slightly less than half the number completed last year.   Registrations are one of the most accurate guides to house building. Mr Sheehan explained that while buyers stay out of the market and while there is a backlog of existing stock, builders will not go ahead with new developments.   As homes are registered about nine months before completion, the system gives a clear picture of what the industry's immediate future holds.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2008/0807/1218047756330.html

Israel

Consumer Confidence in Israel  fell 3.4 points in July to 73.3 points, a four-year low, after remaining almost unchanged in June. The drop in the public's expectations for the next six months dragged the index down, and indicate that private consumption will slow during the rest of the year. Over the past year, the index indicated that a slowdown was in the offing, and it is now being seen in official figures. The drop in imports of durable goods in July is the latest report to this effect.  The public is also increasingly pessimistic about the job market, despite positive figures that showed that the unemployment rate fell to a 19-year low of 6.1%. The public apparently does not believe that the strong job numbers will last, and has internalized the repercussions of the expected slowdown.

The public's assessment of the economic situation dropped sharply in July. This pessimism, which has been growing rapidly in recent months, shows a marked change from the preceding period. The public's assessment about the economic situation in six months time was stable in July, although this does not change the general downward trend of the past year.  The public's assessment about their personal economic situation in six months time has been highly volatile in recent months, and reflect the public's fears and confusion about the future. These attitudes are the main driver of the public's future purchasing decisions.

http://www.globes.co.il/serveen/globes/DocView.asp?did=1000369160&fid=17...

Italy 

Consumer confidence in Italy increased slightly in April from March thanks to an improved perception of the economic situation and of the interviewees' personal situation, according to the research group ISAE.The consumer confidence index rose to 99.8 in April from 99.0 in March.  The reading is also below the 100.0 figure forecast by economists polled by Thomson Financial News.

http://www.forbes.com/afxnewslimited/feeds/afx/2008/04/24/afx4927346.htm...

Jamaica

Jamaican consumers maintained a favourable outlook for job and income growth, although spending plans showed mixed changes. More consumers expressed plans to buy a home than in the previous quarter - 15 per cent, up from 11 per cent - while fewer intended to purchase automobiles or spend on vacation.
After reaching as high as 163 leading up to the general elections in September, the consumer confidence fell modestly to 147.7 during the last quarter of 2007, remaining at record levels despite the pullback in optimism related to election euphoria. The latest reading was the highest on record next to the confidence level during the third quarter of 2007. "When asked to explain their (positive) views, two-thirds of those that anticipated an improved economy attributed their optimism to a change in government."

Interestingly, consumers did not hold as pessimistic a view of the current economic climate, creating an anamoly in the difference between consumer and business optimism. The percentage of firms that expressed optimism about future economic growth dropped from 45 per cent in the third quarter of 2007 to 28 per cent during the quarter under review, which, apart from uncertainty surrounding "shifts in government spending and taxing priorities", reflected the sluggishness of the new administration in its implementation of policy.

http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/magazines/Business/html/20080108T170000-0...  

Japan

Consumer confidence  in Japan fell to a fresh record low in July due to mounting worries about a weakening economy, employment and wage conditions, and rising consumer prices, according to government data released on Tuesday.   The consumer confidence index slid to 31.4 in July, hitting its lowest level since the Cabinet Office started to compile the data in comparative form in June 1982, and down from 32.6 in June. The sub-index for general economic well-being fell to 329.3 in July, the lowest level on record, and was down from the previous low of 30.3 in June The income growth sub-index dipped to 36.3 in July, a level not seen since March 2003 when the index was at 35.8, and was down from 36.5 in June this year.

Respondents were asked if there was an improvement in these areas over the previous three months. A reading above 50 means the number of respondents reporting an improvement outnumbered those seeing a deterioration, while a reading below 50 means the majority of respondents believe conditions had worsened.The employment conditions sub-index fell to 30.7, the lowest level since June 2003 when the index was at 29.5, and was down from 32.8 in June.   The sub-index for willingness to buy durable goods fell to 29.2, a record low and down from 30.9 in June  The Cabinet Office said a record 89.3 percent of those surveyed expected prices to rise over the next 12 months, up from 87.2 percent in June.

http://www.forbes.com/afxnewslimited/feeds/afx/2008/08/12/afx5312023.htm...

Lithuania

Consumer confidence in LIthuania  fell to minus 4 points in October from 1 point in September, the Statistics Department reported. People were more pessimistic about the country's economic prospects in October than they were in September. They also felt less confident about their household finances and possibilities of saving any money in the coming year, it said.

Consumer confidence in urban and rural areas fell by 5 percentage points in each group, to minus 2 and minus 7, respectively. A year-on-year comparison also shows a decline of 5 percentage points in October's consumer confidence index.
The percentage of respondents who expected that the country's economic situation would deteriorate increased to 32 pct last month from 18 pct a year ago.

TFN.newsdesk@thomson.com

Malta

The Central Bank’s surveys of business perceptions, published with the Quarterly Review last week, shows that all three areas surveyed – services, industries and consumers – reported increased optimism during the third quarter of the year. Consumer confidence too improved during the second quarter of the year, with the seasonally-unadjusted index of consumer confidence in Malta published by the European Commission going up by 15 points to -13.

The seasonally-adjusted measure showed a more moderate pick-up, with the index rising 12 points over the quarter to -17 in June.  The Central Bank’s survey of 160 firms, mainly providers of services, showed increased output, profits and employment during the third quarter and anticipates further growth in turnover in the last quarter of the year.

http://www.independent.com.mt/news.asp?newsitemid=61418

Mexico
Consumer confidence in M4xico fell to its lowest level since the country began measuring the index in 2001 as shoppers cope with the highest inflation in more than three years and eye forecasts for slower growth. The index decreased to 88.4 from 90.7 in June, the agency said today. Economists had estimated confidence would fall to 89.8, according to the median of 11 forecasts compiled by Bloomberg.
 
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=aVs41R2eNmJ0&refer=l...

Middle East

The 3rd Bayt.com Quarterly Consumer Confidence Index shows:• Consumers in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and UAE less likely to spend• More pessimistic attitude on spending in most countries• Employee confidence low in Qatar and Saudi Arabia

http://business.todaynominated.com/2007/12/23/decline-in-mid-east-consum...

Consumer confidence in the Middle East has taken a blow, with the recent poll conducted by Bayt.com and YouGovSiraj, showing a significant dip in the propensity to spend.  Consumers are increasingly unsure about their expenditure in the face of rising living costs and a slowdown in some of the regional economies. Optimism remains however amongst consumers who believe the situation will improve in the next few months.

http://www.ameinfo.com/140258.html

Netherlands

Consumer confidence in Holland   fell to minus 31  inJulycompared with minus 19 in June, Statistics Netherlands (CBS) said on Tuesday. CBS said consumer confidence is collapsing, adding the decline in confidence in July was one of the largest ever recorded.

http://www.forbes.com/afxnewslimited/feeds/afx/2008/07/29/afx5263291.htm...

New Zealand

     
Consumer Confidence in New Zealand moved up again in August   to 87.8 according to the early August NZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence, up 2.1 points from mid-July and up 5.8 points since the record low of 82.0 reached in early July.

Now 44%  (up 3%) of New Zealanders say they expect their family to be better off financially at this time next year while 28% (down 5%) say their family will be worse off financially.
New Zealanders are slightly less worried about the New Zealand economy as a whole over the next 12 months with 60% (down 4%) expecting bad times for the economy while 19% (unchanged) expect good times for the New Zealand economy over the next 12 months.

There is still a majority of New Zealanders, 56% (unchanged) who feel that their family is worse off financially than this time last year, while 24% (up 1%) say that they are financially better off than a year ago.  An increasing number of New Zealanders (46%, up 3%) believe now is a bad time to buy major household items while 42% (up 1%) say now is a good time to buy major household items.  Looking further ahead, during the next five years, 37% (unchanged) of New Zealanders are expecting bad times and 36% (down 2%) are expecting good times.

Gary Morgan says: “The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating for New Zealand has stabilised during the past month, with a rise of 5.8 points over early July to be at 87.8. “The recent July 24 decision by Alan Bollard, the Governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, to cut interest rates by 0.25% from the record high 8.25% - is a welcome move in the right direction.

http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2008/785/

Phillippines

Consumer confidence  in the Phillippines weakened in the fourth quarter as barangay election jitters as well as security threats arising from the Glorietta mall explosion swamped positive sentiment arising from robust economic growth, the latest household survey commissioned by the Philippine central bank, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, said.  The overall consumer confidence index in the fourth quarter declined by 10 index points to -33.6 percent versus the index a quarter ago, largely driven by pessimism among households outside the National Capital Region.

"Consumers' apprehensions may have partly reflected the concerns regarding uncertainty on the orderly conduct and outcome of the barangay elections, political noises and threats of terrorism during the survey period" in October, BSP Officer-in-Charge Diwa Guinigundo said in a press briefing Friday.  Since a large proportion of household respondents belonged to the lower income group (59.1 percent), Guinigundo said the pessimistic outlook pulled down the overall consumer confidence index.

"There are more people saying that the outlook seems less bright compared to earlier responses. This is their perception for the outlook on economic and family conditions. But if you look at their buying conditions, most of these are positive, which means that ... their intention to buy or spend their money, which is the one we're focusing on, they're all positive," Guinigundo explained.

http://business.inquirer.net/money/breakingnews/view_article.php?article...

Qatar

 Qatar  has shown a large decline in consumer confidence among countries in the Middle East at 91.6 apoints  a regional survey indicates. This means a  8.4 in Qatar as compared to the April study, also done by regional online jobsite Bayt.com and YouGov Siraj, the largest full-service market research company in the Middle East.

Residents in the three countries (UAE,Qatar andSaudi Arabia) have also become pessimistic in their financial future and career growth. Eight per cent fewer respondents, compared to the previous study, in the UAE saying they are less optimistic about good changes in business conditions and four per cent more admitting to the negative impact of high inflation on their business."There is an overall rising concern about salaries not being able to match the growing inflation," Bayt.com and YouGov said in a statement yesterday, on their quarterly study called The Consumer Confidence Index.

The latest study shows that consumers in the region are now reluctant to spend their money the way they used to, as buyer confidence has been eroded by the rising costs of living and a slowdown in some of the regional economies. But optimism remains among the majority of consumers, believing that the situation will improve over the next few months, the statement said.

http://www.gulfbase.com/site/interface/NewsArchiveDetails.aspx?n=47526

 Saudi Arabia

Consumer confidence  in Saudi Arabia fell to 88.9 points  a regional survey indicates.  This means a 11.1 in Saudi Arabia, as compared to the April study, also done by regional online jobsite Bayt.com and YouGov Siraj, the largest full-service market research company in the Middle East.  Residents in the three countries studied- UAE, Qatar andSaudi Arabia) have also become pessimistic in their financial future and career growth. Eight per cent fewer respondents, compared to the previous study, in the UAE saying they are less optimistic about good changes in business conditions and four per cent more admitting to the negative impact of high inflation on their business."There is an overall rising concern about salaries not being able to match the growing inflation," Bayt.com and YouGov said in a statement yesterday, on their quarterly study called The Consumer Confidence Index.

The latest study shows that consumers in the region are now reluctant to spend their money the way they used to, as buyer confidence has been eroded by the rising costs of living and a slowdown in some of the regional economies. But optimism remains among the majority of consumers, believing that the situation will improve over the next few months, the statement said.

http://www.gulfbase.com/site/interface/NewsArchiveDetails.aspx?n=47526

Slovenia
Optimism among consumers and positive outlook in the services sector enhanced business confidence in Slovenia over the past month, according to the national Statistics Office. The seasonally adjusted business sentiment indicator for July was 14 percentage points above the long-term average, while it was also 1 percentage point above June's figure and 4 points above that recorded in July 2006. The indicator in the services sector was up 4 percentage points on June and 6 points above last year's figure. The consumer confidence index was 2 percentage points higher than the month before, mainly owning to consumers' optimism about the state of economy in the coming 12 months.

http://www.stat.si/eng/novica_prikazi.aspx?id=1029 

South Africa

South African consumer confidence had its biggest drop in 24 years in the second quarter as oil prices surged to a record and interest rates climbed, a survey showed.

The FNB/BER consumer confidence index fell 18 points to minus 6 from the previous three months, First National Bank and the Bureau for Economic Research said in an e-mailed statement today. Last quarter's reading was the lowest in more than four years.

South Africa's government has increased gasoline prices by 43 percent to a record this year, while the central bank has raised interest rates six times in a year. Consumers account for about two-thirds of expenditure in the economy and a decline in their spending may undermine economic growth in Africa's biggest economy, increasing the likelihood of recession as early as the fourth quarter, First National Bank said.

``The outlook is a miserable one, with even lower consumer confidence readings expected over the next 12 months,'' Cees Bruggemans, First National Bank's chief economist, said in the statement. ``The continued rapid loss of confidence from record high levels in 2007 is making recession in the broader economy ever more likely, possibly starting in either the fourth quarter of 2008 or the first quarter of 2009.''

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601116&sid=aiRnW1ncfNw0&refer=a...

South Korea
Consumer spending in South Korea has been weakening due to a sharp increase in consumer prices and a volatile stock market, the Korea Development Institute or KDI said Monday, in its latest economic assessment report.  The government data showed earlier that the consumer-related indexes fell in December for the second consecutive month.

The KDI expects the CPI, which soared to a forty-month high of 3.9% in January, will moderate going forward. This was based on expectation that crude oil and commodity prices will likely stabilize in the short term. The institute also anticipates that stability would be restored in stock prices, following the sharp correction recently.

http://www.rttnews.com/forex/economicnews.asp?date=02/10/2008&item=11

Spain

Consumer confidence in Spain  fell to a fresh low in July on the back of higher unemployment, the Official Credit Institute (ICO) said on Monday, adding this would herald a further slowdown in consumer spending.  Confidence fell to a historic low of 46.3 in July from a previous record low of 51.7 in June, the ICO (nasdaq: ICOC - news - people ) said in a statement -- the latest woeful data to highlight the speed of Spain's economic slowdown.

A year ago the indicator stood at 92.5, but since then Spain's economy has slipped into a sharp slowdown as the global credit crunch exacerbates an already-severe end to the country's decade long property bubble.   'The rise is in line with the rise in unemployment ... it seems to reflect the general uncertainty consumers are experiencing and signals a significant slowdown in consumer spending over the next few months,' the ICO said in a statement.

http://www.forbes.com/afxnewslimited/feeds/afx/2008/08/04/afx5284273.htm...
l

Sweden

Swedish consumer confidence fell to a 13-year low in July while inflation expectations kept rising, a think tank said on Thursday, underlining a policy headache for the country's central bank.  Consumer confidence fell to a worse-than-expected minus 18.2 points in July from minus 10.2 points in June, a survey by state-run National Institute of Economic Research (NIER) showed.

'The situation in the Swedish economy has consequently gone from weaker than normal to much weaker than normal,' the institute said in a release. 'Consumers and the private service sector in particular made a negative contribution.  The median forecast in a Reuters poll of analysts had been for minus 12.0.

The institute's economic sentiment indicator also pointed to increased gloom, dropping to 89.0 from a downwardly revised 93.3 in June.  Further, the quarterly seasonally adjusted manufacturing business confidence gauge deteriorated to minus 9 points, compared from the previous quarterly reading of plus 2 points.

At the same time inflation expectations -- a key concern for the central bank -- rose to the highest level since the start of the survey in the early 1990s, the NIER said.  Swedish households expect 3.7 percent inflation 12 months ahead versus expectations for 3.3 percent in the June report.

http://www.forbes.com/afxnewslimited/feeds/afx/2008/07/31/afx5273910.htm...

Taiwan'

A business climate index for manufacturers rose last month while the reading for the service industry dipped, a think tank survey released yesterday showed, painting a mixed picture of the nation's economic health.Local manufacturers' confidence last month rose to a three-year high, despite the uncertainties of raw material price fluctuations, the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research (TIER, 台經院) said in a report.
The business climate index for the manufacturing industry for last month climbed by 2.29 to 121.5 points, the highest figure since August 2004, the institute's tallies showed.The Taipei-based institute attributed manufacturers' optimism about business prospects to two reasons: the increasing demand for Taiwanese goods in the nation's major export markets and the approach of high season for their products.
Based on the institute's survey, manufacturers who viewed the economy optimistically increased by 2.8 percent last month, while those who believed the economy was worsening decreased by 0.6 percent. On the economic outlook for the next six months, 38.6 percent of manufacturers said that they were optimistic, up from 34.7 percent when the same survey was conducted in July, the report said.
About 19.6 percent of those polled said they were pessimistic about the economy, up from 16.9 percent in the previous month, while 41.9 percent believed the economy would neither improve nor worsen during the next six months, down from 48.4 percent, it said.

 http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/archives/2007/09/29/2003380967

Thailand

Thailand's consumer confidence index in March continued to edge upward although the public remained concerned about living costs and political stability, according to the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC).

Saovanee Thairungroj, deputy dean of UTCC's Research Department, said on Thursday that the consumer confidence index in three key categories had increased in March.  Thanawat Palavichai, director of the UTTC Economic and Business Forecasting Center, said the consumer confidence index edged up for the fifth consecutive month.The index on the overall economy rose to 73.8 from 72.6 in February, that on the job opportunities to 73.5 from 72.7, and that on future incomes to 94.6 from 93.2.

http://enews.mcot.net/view.php?id=3719

Due to deteriorations in consumers’ assessments of purchasing power and the general economic situation and job opportunities in the coming period, the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) decreased by 0.82 percent month-on-month in June. The Consumer Tendency Survey conducted monthly by the Turkish Statistics Institute (Turkstat) and the Central Bank of Turkey announced the results of consumer behavior and expectations for June yesterday, revealing that the CCI had fallen from the May level of 94.96 to 94.17

http://www.todayszaman.com/tz-web/detaylar.do?load=detay&link=117472 

United Arab Emirates 

The UAE, has shown  a greater declines in consumer confidence among countries in the Middle East at  88.9 points respectively, a regional survey indicates.This means a 6.6-point decline in the UAE, 8.4 in Qatar and 11.1 in Saudi Arabia, as compared to the April study, also done by regional online jobsite Bayt.com and YouGov Siraj, the largest full-service market research company in the Middle East.

Residents in the three countries have also become pessimistic in their financial future and career growth. Eight per cent fewer respondents, compared to the previous study, in the UAE saying they are less optimistic about good changes in business conditions and four per cent more admitting to the negative impact of high inflation on their business."There is an overall rising concern about salaries not being able to match the growing inflation," Bayt.com and YouGov said in a statement yesterday, on their quarterly study called The Consumer Confidence Index.

The latest study shows that consumers in the region are now reluctant to spend their money the way they used to, as buyer confidence has been eroded by the rising costs of living and a slowdown in some of the regional economies. But optimism remains among the majority of consumers, believing that the situation will improve over the next few months, the statement said.

http://www.gulfbase.com/site/interface/NewsArchiveDetails.aspx?n=47526
 

United Kingdom

Confidence in the Unied Kingdom among manufacturers and consumers has fallen, with all of the UK showing a dip in manufacturing morale and individuals increasingly worried about employment prospects and inflation.

With the economy slowing and cost pressures intensifying, business confidence dropped in every region of Britain in the second quarter of the year, according to a Confederation of British Industry/Experian survey. The North-west, the West Midlands and Yorkshire and the Humber had their biggest falls since 2001. Investment intentions for plant and machinery are at their weakest since 2002.   Consumers are also increasingly pessimistic about the prospects for the jobs market. Expectations for employment and job security dropped sharply in July, according to the Lloyds TSB Corporate Markets consumer survey.

Inflation is taking hold in people's expectations for the economy, with an increase in the number of consumers expecting higher prices in the next 12 months. The average expectation for the official inflation rate hit a survey record of 4.8 per cent.  The Bank of England is grappling with the twin threats of inflation and a slowing economy. Policymakers have said repeatedly that their main aim is to stop inflation becoming embedded in expectations.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/business-and-consumer-co...
 

Consumer confidence in the UK slumped to its lowest recorded level during July in the wake of falling house prices and rising energy costs, a closely-watched survey found Thursday.   In its monthly survey, pollsters GfK NOP said its consumer confidence index dropped a further five points in July -39, its lowest level since the survey started in 1974.    'At -39, this is 4 points lower than in March 1990 when the UK was heading into the grip of the last recession,' said Donna Culverwell in GfK NOP's consumer confidence team.

'With the cost of living still on the increase, the housing market in a depression and reports of possible further increases in energy prices, levels of confidence amongst consumers are not surprisingly low, especially amongst women or those over the age of 50,' she added.  The personal financial situation index for the next 12 months dropped a further 9 points in July to -18, its lowest level since May 1994.  Meanwhile, expectations for the general economic situation over the next 12 months have dropped by a further seven points to a record low of -52.

http://www.forbes.com/afxnewslimited/feeds/afx/2008/07/30/afx5272734.htm...

United States of America 

CU.S. consumer sentiment recovered from early 1980s lows in July as Americans received tax rebate checks from the government but remained pressured by high gasoline prices and falling home

The Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said its final index of confidence rose to 61.2 in July from 56.4 in June. Analyst forecasts had pointed to no change from last month.

Both perceptions of current economic conditions and expectations improved somewhat on the month. Yet the outlook was far from rosy, according to the survey.

"The data still indicate an ongoing downturn in spending that will last well into 2009," the report said.

Inflation expectations one year out held steady at 5.1 percent, while looking further out at a five-year horizon they dipped to 3.2 percent from 3.4 percent.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080725/bs_nm/usa_economy_sentiment_dc

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