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Ominous signs

Everyone is being way too complacent. We wake up in the morning and think same old, same old, but there are three X factors – three significant weak signals to be taken into consideration – that will send the nation’s SMEs back to their strategic drawing boards. We now have a number of advanced warning signals that suggest that, in this election year, people should be keeping a weather eye on the creation of another crisis designed to shore up incumbent administrations, raise fuel prices and create an atmosphere of fear and insecurity – a crisis that could collapse both consumer and business confidence.

First weak signal:
The coming change of government in October or November. The combined
Rein/Rudd team (the new power couple of politics) is putting
unprecedented pressure on John Howard. At last it will dawn on all
those in the Industry portfolio who focus on the big end of town that
they must listen to (Small Business Minister) Fran Bailey, who really
understands this sector.

The Government must recover from its terrible position and it will do so by an unprecedented focus
on independent contractors and small business. But as the election grows closer, nervousness will spread.

Second weak signal:
A major change in the European alliance is looming with the handover of
the poison chalice from Tony Blair to Gordon Brown. My view? Blair did
not want to deal with a further commitment to the Bush/Cheney plan for
containment of China and Iran. The US insists it wants to resolve the
Iranian nuclear crisis through diplomacy, but has never ruled out the
prospect of military action.

Third weak signal:
Trouble in Iraq, with the majority of members of Iraq's parliament
signing a draft bill that would require a timetable for the withdrawal
of US soldiers from Iraq and freeze current troop levels. The
development is a sign of a growing division between Iraq's legislators
and prime minister that mirrors the widening gulf between the Bush
administration and its critics in Congress.

Those relying on the reconstruction of Iraq should think again as the Democrats try to put skids on US debt.

This year is about enormous change with elections coming for all leaders of
the Coalition of the Willing, and many strategies will be determined on
this.

To read more Colin Benjamin blogs, click here.

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